Do I ship it?

Games › Local Co-Op › Local Co-Op + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Nature

Of 36 developers who shipped a Nature Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×674 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 59 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $32k → $3.4k → $1.1k → $4.8k → $31k → $358 (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,122)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 107
Announced 59
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Adventure, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Family Friendly, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wingspan 2020 · $5.9M Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna) 2014 · $2.6M Arise: A Simple Story 2020 · $1.6M Spirit Island 2020 · $1.2M Big Farm Story 2021 · $703k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna) older $14.99 5,812 81% 174k $2.6M (exactly $2,613,656) Upper One Games, E-Line Media
Arise: A Simple Story older $19.99 2,723 91% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,632,983) Piccolo Studio
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Big Farm Story older $19.99 1,172 78% 35k $703k (exactly $702,848) Goodgame Studios
Moonglow Bay older $24.99 679 66% 20k $509k (exactly $509,046) Bunnyhug
Primal Planet $19.99 629 88% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Seethingswarm
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Cinnabunny $24.99 403 96% 12k $302k (exactly $302,129) Reky Studios
The Smurfs - Mission Vileaf older $19.99 430 82% 13k $258k (exactly $257,871) OSome Studio
Sheepherds! $14.99 307 98% 9.2k $138k (exactly $138,058) Ultimo Disco
Log Riders $4.99 660 70% 20k $99k (exactly $98,802) Bluespy Studios
Chained Wheels $4.99 619 69% 19k $93k (exactly $92,664) Karga Games
Wirm $6.99 147 93% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) Sbug Games
Marsupilami 2 - Salsa Palombia $24.99 28 100% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Ocellus Studio
Lost in Tandem $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Tempete Studio
Capy Castaway $19.99 24 70% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Kitten Cup Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.