Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Historical

Only 15 developers shipped a Historical Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Saint Slayer: Spear of Sacrilege, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $479 → $450 → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 53
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 195 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition 2014 · $18M DYNASTY WARRIORS 9 2018 · $8.9M WARRIORS OROCHI 4 2018 · $8.0M LEGO® Jurassic World 2015 · $4.7M Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 9 older $44.99 6,587 34% 198k $8.9M (exactly $8,890,474) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
WARRIORS OROCHI 4 older $59.99 4,424 85% 133k $8.0M (exactly $7,961,873) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
LEGO® Jurassic World older $19.99 7,797 92% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,675,861) TT Games Ltd
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
WARRIORS OROCHI 3 Ultimate Definitive Edition older $39.99 2,129 88% 64k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,161) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SAMURAI WARRIORS 5 older $59.99 1,313 81% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,363,006) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8 Empires older $49.99 1,456 66% 44k $2.2M (exactly $2,183,563) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SAMURAI WARRIORS 4-II older $49.99 1,259 73% 38k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,122) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Saint Slayer: Spear of Sacrilege $9.99 109 94% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) Lillymo Games
Threads of War $4.99 45 97% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) KoS
Strikers 1945 2 $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Zerodiv
Strikers 1945 3 $9.99 7 71% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Zerodiv
Ricochet Rodeo $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Echidna Studios
Centurion's Gambit $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) iebaz
Pastimes $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Kaal
Pharaoh's Riches $7.99 2 0% 60 $479 (exactly $479) SAT-BOX
Blackbeard's Treasure $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) SAT-BOX
Sky Combat: WWII Warplane Races · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.