Do I ship it?

GamesLocal Co-OpLocal Co-Op + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Local Co-Op game?

Local Co-Op + Fantasy

Of 141 developers who shipped a Fantasy Local Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $920k, ×1952 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 241 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 241 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Co-Op + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 141
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $3.1k → $6.0k → $1.2k → $11k → $3.4k → $2.7k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Co-Op + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 141
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,891)
Top 5% $927k (exactly $927,368)
Developers, 2 yr 141
Released games 521
Announced 241
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 100,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $920k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  2. + LGBTQ+Fair11 devs · median $14k · 12 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair16 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  4. + TriviaFair12 devs · median $7.5k · 13 announced
  5. + Action RPGFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  6. + ModernFair11 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Dark FantasyFair40 devs · median $2.7k · 47 announced
  8. + Board GameFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  9. + Dungeon CrawlerFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 60 announced
  10. + MedievalFair46 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair22 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  12. + Point & ClickFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 9 announced

All 151 pairs on the Local Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Tales of Berseria™ older $49.99 14,380 91% 431k $22M (exactly $21,565,686) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
Tiny Tina's Wonderlands older $29.99 17,779 70% 533k $16M (exactly $15,995,766) Gearbox Software
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
The Adventures of Elliot: The Millennium Tales $59.99 1,687 78% 51k $3.0M (exactly $3,036,094) Square Enix, Claytechworks
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
LEGO® Harry Potter™ Collection $39.99 1,464 82% 44k $1.8M (exactly $1,756,361) TT Games, Double Eleven
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
Wild Woods · EA $14.99 1,746 78% 52k $785k (exactly $785,176) Octofox Games
PAC-MAN WORLD 2 Re-PAC $29.99 694 90% 21k $624k (exactly $624,392) NOW PRODUCTION Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.