Do I ship it?

Games › Character Action Game › Character Action Game + Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay Character Action Game?

Character Action Game + Swordplay

Only 5 developers shipped a Swordplay Character Action Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NINJA GAIDEN 4, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $540k against a market of $1.5k. 20 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 359.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 20 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Character Action Game + Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Character Action Game + Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $539k (exactly $538,531)
Top 25% $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $17,761,362)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 36
Announced 20
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Character Action Game
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Character Action Game, Swordplay
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 92,884 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $540k, 1 in 4 over $4.9M, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 20 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Character Action Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Sci-fiPoor odds12 devs · median $305k · 30 announced
  2. + Action RPGPoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  3. + ShooterPoor odds14 devs · median $84k · 47 announced
  4. + Action-AdventurePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 43 announced
  6. + Spectacle fighterPoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  7. + Hack and SlashPoor odds27 devs · median $58k · 80 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upPoor odds12 devs · median $58k · 37 announced
  9. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $29k · 100 announced
  10. + ActionPoor odds54 devs · median $20k · 188 announced
  11. + Action RoguelikePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 16 announced

All 39 pairs on the Character Action Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M NINJA GAIDEN 4 2025 · $18M NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black 2025 · $4.9M Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition 2014 · $2.3M Soulstice 2022 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae older $9.99 2,747 81% 82k $823k (exactly $823,276) Zenith Blue
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
City of Brass older $19.99 758 77% 23k $455k (exactly $454,573) Uppercut Games Pty Ltd
Vernal Edge older $16.99 532 74% 16k $271k (exactly $271,160) Hello Penguin Team LLC
Slay The Berserker · EA $9.99 10 50% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Advance Garde
Duil $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JL studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.