Do I ship it?

Games2D Platformer2D Platformer + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel 2D Platformer?

2D Platformer + Visual Novel

Of 304 developers who shipped a Visual Novel 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 446 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 446 games are announced against 192 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 446 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Platformer + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 304
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $5.4k → $1.8k → $6.2k → $3.0k → $3.2k → $861 (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Platformer + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 304
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,419)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,388)
Developers, 2 yr 304
Released games 837
Announced 446
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
2D Platformer, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 23,295 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 161 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 446 games are announced against 192 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  2. + VampiresFair47 devs · median $1.9k · 50 announced
  3. + MechsFair33 devs · median $1.8k · 44 announced
  4. + PinballFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 9 announced
  5. + WesternFair10 devs · median $1.3k · 13 announced
  6. + CRPGFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair178 devs · median $1.0k · 185 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  9. + MiningFair38 devs · median $748 · 45 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  11. + Party-Based RPGFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced

All 226 pairs on the 2D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
魔女的夜宴 older $34.99 9,664 98% 290k $10M (exactly $10,144,301) YUZUSOFT
月に寄りそう乙女の作法 older $39.99 3,462 97% 104k $4.2M (exactly $4,153,361) Navel
PARANORMASIGHT: The Seven Mysteries of Honjo older $19.99 6,123 95% 184k $3.7M (exactly $3,671,963) Square Enix
To Be or Not to Be older $12.99 8,035 89% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) Team K
Bishojo Mangekyo Kotowari to Meikyu no Shojo older $29.99 2,718 95% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,445,385) ωstar, Seikei Production
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Hamidashi Creative older $29.99 2,360 94% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,292) madosoft
Train45 $10.99 3,823 97% 115k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) Elniko
候鸟 older $10.99 3,674 97% 110k $1.2M (exactly $1,211,318) KIDFansClub
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Fate/hollow ataraxia REMASTERED $29.99 949 96% 28k $854k (exactly $853,815) TYPE-MOON, fuzz Inc.
The Censor DX Edition $17.99 1,467 82% 44k $792k (exactly $791,740) Tiramisu, Big S Studio
Kugayama Shiori's Death Diary $24.99 987 95% 30k $740k (exactly $739,954) Laplacian
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
AIR $29.99 639 98% 19k $575k (exactly $574,908) VISUAL ARTS/Key
Taiwan Love Story⁵ $17.99 939 84% 28k $507k (exactly $506,778) 快樂怪物, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.