Do I ship it?

Games2D Platformer2D Platformer + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death 2D Platformer?

2D Platformer + Perma Death

Of 70 developers who shipped a Perma Death 2D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $45k, ×96 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 79 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 79 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Platformer + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $2.7k → $748 → $449 → $718 → $1.8k → $479 (still earning) → $285 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Platformer + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $45,420)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 255
Announced 79
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
2D Platformer, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $45k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  2. + VampiresFair47 devs · median $1.9k · 50 announced
  3. + MechsFair33 devs · median $1.8k · 44 announced
  4. + PinballFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 9 announced
  5. + WesternFair10 devs · median $1.3k · 13 announced
  6. + CRPGFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair178 devs · median $1.0k · 185 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  9. + MiningFair38 devs · median $748 · 45 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  11. + Party-Based RPGFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  12. + Tactical RPGFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced

All 226 pairs on the 2D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Spelunky 2 older $19.99 19,736 93% 592k $12M (exactly $11,835,679) Mossmouth, BlitWorks
30XX older $19.99 2,514 90% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,646) Batterystaple Games
ScourgeBringer older $16.99 2,642 87% 79k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,627) Flying Oak Games, E-Studio
Fury Unleashed older $19.99 2,010 86% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,205,397) Awesome Games Studio
Caveblazers older $9.99 3,416 86% 102k $1.0M (exactly $1,023,775) Deadpan Games
Cluckmech Oasis older $9.99 3,077 87% 92k $922k (exactly $922,177) BlackLight
Bing in Wonderland older $8.99 2,020 97% 61k $545k (exactly $544,794) Wanba Studio
Lakeview Cabin Collection older $9.99 1,599 94% 48k $479k (exactly $479,220) Roope Tamminen
BZZZT older $11.99 952 93% 29k $342k (exactly $342,434) KO.DLL
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Rogue Blight $12.99 318 91% 9.5k $124k (exactly $123,925) CodeRadGames
Cryptical Path $14.99 130 86% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) Old Skull Games
Aura of Worlds $14.99 101 96% 3.0k $45k (exactly $45,420) Cognitive Forge
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
An Amazing Wizard · EA $11.99 98 83% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) Tiny Goblins
Horny Haunts $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Naelstrof, Raliv, BigCozyOrca, Eugene
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
PixelBoss: Shattered Depths · EA $2.99 116 75% 3.5k $10k (exactly $10,405) Quacky Games
OREBLAZE $4.99 64 92% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Ludiminal Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.